Meteorologist Blogs
Update - Friday, 1PM CDT
Hurricane Ike now about 165 miles southeast of Galveston and the forward motion is becoming more northwesterly at 10 knots. This motion is likely to continue and should place Ike onshore near Crystal Beach in the Galveston area around 3AM CDT early Saturday morning - probably as a strong Category II hurricane.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Ike, now at 85 knots, continues to move toward the north central Texas coast. Ike has a most unusual structure with an outer wind maxima - at times resembling a secondary eye within the eyewall (and sometimes two of these) rotating around the inner center of the hurricane. This structure expands the field of maximum winds considerably - rather than just a smaller area around the center - and if this structure should continue for the next 36 hours or so, the risk of any significant intensification seems unlikely.
Similar to Gustav, and to a lesser extent Fay, the inner core of Ike has not recovered after its second landfall over western Cuba and Ike's entrance into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps a combination of factors created the unusual structure of this storm - the pull from the shortwave that passed to the north, the dry air entrainment from the west through southwest (that still continues to some degree) and the significant expansion of the storm itself are possible contributing factors. Ike will certainly become an interesting future case study.
Although unusual in appearance, Ike is still a storm that presents many dangers. Even if the intensity remains unchanged, these additional wind maxima will greatly expand the area of highest winds upon landfall to an area much larger than that which would normally be expected. From the precise point of landfall (which now appears to be in the vicinity of Sargent, Texas) the zone of strong winds could extend from 30 miles to the south to 45 miles to the north. NHC notes that there is still plenty of time for the center to contract and the hurricane to intensify. It is also within the realm of possibility for Ike to form a 50 to 60 mile wide eye prior to landfall. Ike is one storm where the axiom 'don't just pay attention to the point of landfall' is very important.
ED
Hurricane Ike now about 165 miles southeast of Galveston and the forward motion is becoming more northwesterly at 10 knots. This motion is likely to continue and should place Ike onshore near Crystal Beach in the Galveston area around 3AM CDT early Saturday morning - probably as a strong Category II hurricane.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Ike, now at 85 knots, continues to move toward the north central Texas coast. Ike has a most unusual structure with an outer wind maxima - at times resembling a secondary eye within the eyewall (and sometimes two of these) rotating around the inner center of the hurricane. This structure expands the field of maximum winds considerably - rather than just a smaller area around the center - and if this structure should continue for the next 36 hours or so, the risk of any significant intensification seems unlikely.
Similar to Gustav, and to a lesser extent Fay, the inner core of Ike has not recovered after its second landfall over western Cuba and Ike's entrance into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps a combination of factors created the unusual structure of this storm - the pull from the shortwave that passed to the north, the dry air entrainment from the west through southwest (that still continues to some degree) and the significant expansion of the storm itself are possible contributing factors. Ike will certainly become an interesting future case study.
Although unusual in appearance, Ike is still a storm that presents many dangers. Even if the intensity remains unchanged, these additional wind maxima will greatly expand the area of highest winds upon landfall to an area much larger than that which would normally be expected. From the precise point of landfall (which now appears to be in the vicinity of Sargent, Texas) the zone of strong winds could extend from 30 miles to the south to 45 miles to the north. NHC notes that there is still plenty of time for the center to contract and the hurricane to intensify. It is also within the realm of possibility for Ike to form a 50 to 60 mile wide eye prior to landfall. Ike is one storm where the axiom 'don't just pay attention to the point of landfall' is very important.
ED
Hurricane Ike - once again a Category IV hurricane with sustained winds of 135mph is about to vent his wrath on Grand Turk Island on his way toward eastern Cuba Ike is currently moving west southwest and should spend Sunday evening and most of Monday crossing over Cuba on a west northwesterly course. On this track, Ike will pass south of the Florida peninsula with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday and Tuesday in south Florida and into Wednesday in the Keys. Ike is expected to move slowly into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday on a west northwesterly to northwesterly course as a shortwave system passes well to his north and creates a minor weakness in the high pressure ridge that is currently guiding his movement. However after Wednesday his track gets a little murky - the weakness could continue to pull Ike to the northwest or the ridge may rebuild to his north and force a more westward track again.
Ike's track over Cuba will reduce his intensity considerably - especially when he makes contact with the high mountains of eastern Cuba. With at least 36 hours over Cuba he could be a Cat I hurricane or even a tropical storm when he exits Cuba into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At that point, if he survives Cuba, some redevelopment is possible.
Tropical Storm Hanna is rapidly approaching Long Island this evening with winds near the center now at 60mph on a track across southeastern New England. Heavy rains have already arrived in those areas with rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour.
ED
Ike's track over Cuba will reduce his intensity considerably - especially when he makes contact with the high mountains of eastern Cuba. With at least 36 hours over Cuba he could be a Cat I hurricane or even a tropical storm when he exits Cuba into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At that point, if he survives Cuba, some redevelopment is possible.
Tropical Storm Hanna is rapidly approaching Long Island this evening with winds near the center now at 60mph on a track across southeastern New England. Heavy rains have already arrived in those areas with rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour.
ED
Update - Sunday Afternoon
If there is such a thing as good news with regard to a hurricane it is that Hurricane Gustav did not rapidly re-develop his central core after leaving western Cuba in the early hours of Sunday morning. The eye of the hurricane is still ragged and elongated and the inner core has still not fully established itself. Based on aircraft recon, Gustav remains a low-end Category III Hurricane with sustained winds probably closer to 115mph and a central pressure of 960MB. Movement remains generally to the northwest with occasional jogs to the north northwest and the forward speed is currently about 13 or 14 knots.
With the lack of rapid reorganization of the central core and eyewall over the past ten hours, Hurricane Gustav is not likely to intensify very much (if at all) prior to landfall. He has already moved north of the warmer SSTs of the southern loop current in the Gulf of Mexico and windshear has already had some impact on the system. With slightly cooler waters ahead on his track, Gustav will be challenged to maintain a steady state prior to landfall. I don't really anticipate any significant changes in the track - maybe just a nudge to the east which could place the New Orleans area to the west of the track - but still difficult to make a firm call on this given the lighter steering currents in the north central Gulf.
Gustav's forward motion is likely to slow down just prior to or just after landfall, and this would significantly increase the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi - and other areas near and east of the track after landfall. The risk area as outlined in the original article remains unchanged with isolated tornadoes possible in areas north and east of landfall. With consideration for increasing windshear and lowering SSTs, Hurricane Gustav should make landfall as a high-end Category II storm (although a low-end Category III is still possible if the forward speed picks up again).
Regardless of final intensity, every landfalling hurricane should be taken seriously and planning, preparation and protection are the keywords. The storm surge at and east of the landfall area will still be about 10 feet with surge in constricted areas up to 13 feet. Even if the storm should pass just to the east of the New Orleans area, wind driven overwash from Lake Pontchartrain could still cause serious flooding conditions. Follow the instructions of your local and state Emergency Management personnel and stay safe - and alive.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Gustav has entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just off the north coast of western Cuba near 23.1N 83.8W at 11PM. Movement is still to the northwest but the forward speed slowed down a bit as the hurricane made a slight jog to the west northwest and it took him about three hours to cross over Cuba. This was probably a little longer than the NHC had anticipated. The eye clouded over and I'm sure that the intensity has dropped off somewhat, however, the eyewall structure is already rapidly rebuilding. Still looks like a general northwest track through the Gulf, although since the high pressure ridge over the southeast has been a little slower in its development, I'd expect some minor adjustments to the right in the forecast track. My best estimate right now would be a track from its current position to about 30N 90W with landfall Monday afternoon on the Louisiana delta and then near the Louisiana-Mississippi state line as a major hurricane. Gustav may still regain Cat IV intensity in the Gulf, but wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf should lower the intensity again - but not by much. If Gustav moves northwestward in the Gulf with a brisk forward speed, intensity at landfall could still be Cat IV.
With high pressure building over the southeast and Gustav passing well to the southwest and west of Florida, east central Florida will have rapidly moving squalls from the outer bands of Gustav with brief wind gusts to about 35mph Saturday night and Sunday (and perhaps a few Sunday night). The Keys and the Florida west coast may have a few gusts that are higher, but the Gulf coast from western Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle will bear the brunt of this dangerous hurricane. If your area is ordered to evacuate, don't hesitate - just do it! A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet above the normal high water line is possible in the area immediately to the east of where the eye makes landfall.
ED
If there is such a thing as good news with regard to a hurricane it is that Hurricane Gustav did not rapidly re-develop his central core after leaving western Cuba in the early hours of Sunday morning. The eye of the hurricane is still ragged and elongated and the inner core has still not fully established itself. Based on aircraft recon, Gustav remains a low-end Category III Hurricane with sustained winds probably closer to 115mph and a central pressure of 960MB. Movement remains generally to the northwest with occasional jogs to the north northwest and the forward speed is currently about 13 or 14 knots.
With the lack of rapid reorganization of the central core and eyewall over the past ten hours, Hurricane Gustav is not likely to intensify very much (if at all) prior to landfall. He has already moved north of the warmer SSTs of the southern loop current in the Gulf of Mexico and windshear has already had some impact on the system. With slightly cooler waters ahead on his track, Gustav will be challenged to maintain a steady state prior to landfall. I don't really anticipate any significant changes in the track - maybe just a nudge to the east which could place the New Orleans area to the west of the track - but still difficult to make a firm call on this given the lighter steering currents in the north central Gulf.
Gustav's forward motion is likely to slow down just prior to or just after landfall, and this would significantly increase the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi - and other areas near and east of the track after landfall. The risk area as outlined in the original article remains unchanged with isolated tornadoes possible in areas north and east of landfall. With consideration for increasing windshear and lowering SSTs, Hurricane Gustav should make landfall as a high-end Category II storm (although a low-end Category III is still possible if the forward speed picks up again).
Regardless of final intensity, every landfalling hurricane should be taken seriously and planning, preparation and protection are the keywords. The storm surge at and east of the landfall area will still be about 10 feet with surge in constricted areas up to 13 feet. Even if the storm should pass just to the east of the New Orleans area, wind driven overwash from Lake Pontchartrain could still cause serious flooding conditions. Follow the instructions of your local and state Emergency Management personnel and stay safe - and alive.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Gustav has entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just off the north coast of western Cuba near 23.1N 83.8W at 11PM. Movement is still to the northwest but the forward speed slowed down a bit as the hurricane made a slight jog to the west northwest and it took him about three hours to cross over Cuba. This was probably a little longer than the NHC had anticipated. The eye clouded over and I'm sure that the intensity has dropped off somewhat, however, the eyewall structure is already rapidly rebuilding. Still looks like a general northwest track through the Gulf, although since the high pressure ridge over the southeast has been a little slower in its development, I'd expect some minor adjustments to the right in the forecast track. My best estimate right now would be a track from its current position to about 30N 90W with landfall Monday afternoon on the Louisiana delta and then near the Louisiana-Mississippi state line as a major hurricane. Gustav may still regain Cat IV intensity in the Gulf, but wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf should lower the intensity again - but not by much. If Gustav moves northwestward in the Gulf with a brisk forward speed, intensity at landfall could still be Cat IV.
With high pressure building over the southeast and Gustav passing well to the southwest and west of Florida, east central Florida will have rapidly moving squalls from the outer bands of Gustav with brief wind gusts to about 35mph Saturday night and Sunday (and perhaps a few Sunday night). The Keys and the Florida west coast may have a few gusts that are higher, but the Gulf coast from western Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle will bear the brunt of this dangerous hurricane. If your area is ordered to evacuate, don't hesitate - just do it! A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet above the normal high water line is possible in the area immediately to the east of where the eye makes landfall.
ED
Fay is producing torrential rains across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia right now with rainfall rates averaging 1.5"/hr across the region. Rainfall rates to 4-6"/hr have been reported with the heaviest band currently extending from Thomasville, GA to Monticello, FL to Dekle Beach, FL and this will shift westward as Fay slides westward. Daily rainfall records will be broken today across this region, with 10.13" being the 24 hr rainfall record in Tallahassee to date. In some areas monthly record rainfall totals may be approached with storm total accumulations of 15" likely being the norm rather than the exception.
For Tallahassee and points west, the worst is yet to come. The airmass over the Gulf is unstable and very, very moist, resulting in the development and maintenance of intense, highly efficient rain-producing storms. With the Gulf of Mexico wide open to the south and southeast of Fay, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. Three-hourly accumulations near 10" have been observed in some spots and it is quite possible that similar totals are found in Tallahassee and nearby locales starting in just a few hours. An isolated tornado threat exists with these storms as well, although the potential may be a bit higher further to the north.
For those in my part of the world, I urge you to stay inside and do not venture out onto the roads. Many roads have been closed due to downed trees and many others will be closing due to flooding and further downed trees as the day progresses today. If you are out on the roads and come to *any* body of standing or moving water, turn around-don't drown. It only takes a small amount of water to move a car. Already many people have lost their lives in Florida due to this storm -- don't let rushing water or falling trees impact you as well. For those of you to the west, be prepared and do not let this catch you off-guard!
For Tallahassee and points west, the worst is yet to come. The airmass over the Gulf is unstable and very, very moist, resulting in the development and maintenance of intense, highly efficient rain-producing storms. With the Gulf of Mexico wide open to the south and southeast of Fay, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. Three-hourly accumulations near 10" have been observed in some spots and it is quite possible that similar totals are found in Tallahassee and nearby locales starting in just a few hours. An isolated tornado threat exists with these storms as well, although the potential may be a bit higher further to the north.
For those in my part of the world, I urge you to stay inside and do not venture out onto the roads. Many roads have been closed due to downed trees and many others will be closing due to flooding and further downed trees as the day progresses today. If you are out on the roads and come to *any* body of standing or moving water, turn around-don't drown. It only takes a small amount of water to move a car. Already many people have lost their lives in Florida due to this storm -- don't let rushing water or falling trees impact you as well. For those of you to the west, be prepared and do not let this catch you off-guard!
At least that was the original moniker that was given to this storm with its erratic movements off the east coast of central Florida - but that has changed. I'm sure that many of you have heard of the Bermuda High and the Icelandic Low. Rumor has it that some meteorologists are considering a new semi-permanent pressure center that will become the standard against which any future systems will be measured. It will be known as the Florida Atlantic Yardstick - or "FAY" for short.
Realistically, Fay is nothing to joke about. From Naples to Melbourne and northward along the coast, folks have been contending with her wrath. Tornadoes along her path and in her outer bands and rainfall amounts never before experienced by most Floridians have certainly placed Fay in the record books and in the minds of thousands who have suffered from her onslaught. Fay needs to be seriously considered as the second tropical storm to have its named 'retired'.
At 11am this morning Fay was still stationary about 15 miles offshore Daytona Beach with 50 knot sustained winds, although since that time she seems to have started a slow drift to the west or west northwest and , with luck, this motion will continue as a building high pressure area to her north begins to nudge her westward. Fay is expected to slowly move westward - with emphasis on the word 'slowly' - and she should be located near Archer, Florida (southwest of Gainesville), at 8am Friday morning as a 40 knot tropical storm. Her expected future track should take Fay (as a Tropical Depression) along or just offshore the south coast of the Florida panhandle toward the Pensacola area in a few days.
The slow forward motion will generate additional rainfall for east central Florida tonight - one to three inches more in southern Brevard County, three to five inches more in northern Brevard County, five to eight inches more in Volusia and Flagler Counties and up to a foot of rain in locations along her path through the northern Florida peninsula. Winds will be strong north of the center but flooding is still the primary concern associated with Fay. So far I've recorded 15.83 inches in northwest Melbourne. Other storm totals include 15.26 at the Melbourne Airport, 18.70 in Satellite Beach and an unconfirmed report of over 26.2 inches at Windover Farms in northwest Melbourne.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place from Ft. Pierce northward along the Florida east coast - and they have been in place for three days - and that is something else that I've never seen before. Fay has been a difficult storm to deal with meteorologically, and any track forecasts that were accurate were purely coincidental
ED
Realistically, Fay is nothing to joke about. From Naples to Melbourne and northward along the coast, folks have been contending with her wrath. Tornadoes along her path and in her outer bands and rainfall amounts never before experienced by most Floridians have certainly placed Fay in the record books and in the minds of thousands who have suffered from her onslaught. Fay needs to be seriously considered as the second tropical storm to have its named 'retired'.
At 11am this morning Fay was still stationary about 15 miles offshore Daytona Beach with 50 knot sustained winds, although since that time she seems to have started a slow drift to the west or west northwest and , with luck, this motion will continue as a building high pressure area to her north begins to nudge her westward. Fay is expected to slowly move westward - with emphasis on the word 'slowly' - and she should be located near Archer, Florida (southwest of Gainesville), at 8am Friday morning as a 40 knot tropical storm. Her expected future track should take Fay (as a Tropical Depression) along or just offshore the south coast of the Florida panhandle toward the Pensacola area in a few days.
The slow forward motion will generate additional rainfall for east central Florida tonight - one to three inches more in southern Brevard County, three to five inches more in northern Brevard County, five to eight inches more in Volusia and Flagler Counties and up to a foot of rain in locations along her path through the northern Florida peninsula. Winds will be strong north of the center but flooding is still the primary concern associated with Fay. So far I've recorded 15.83 inches in northwest Melbourne. Other storm totals include 15.26 at the Melbourne Airport, 18.70 in Satellite Beach and an unconfirmed report of over 26.2 inches at Windover Farms in northwest Melbourne.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place from Ft. Pierce northward along the Florida east coast - and they have been in place for three days - and that is something else that I've never seen before. Fay has been a difficult storm to deal with meteorologically, and any track forecasts that were accurate were purely coincidental
ED
Fay came ashore at 6am this morning just a little south of Naples, Florida, with winds of 60mph gusting to 70mph and at 9am the storm was located near Immokalee moving to the northeast at 10mph. Winds are still at 60mph and they will only drop off a little as the storm slowly crosses the Florida peninsula. Since landfall, the storm has actually become a little better organized with a distinct central core - and the pressure has dropped 5MB to 989MB - as she heads toward the western shore of Lake Okeechobee. Fay will exit into the Atlantic somewhere between Palm Bay and Cocoa Beach at midnight tonight with winds of 40 to 45mph gusting to 50mph. A few gusts to 55mph are still possible on the barrier islands later this evening.
Expect a blustery day as Fay heads toward east central Florida with winds and squalls increasing in intensity this afternoon and lasting into Wednesday morning. Rainfall, heavy at times, could easily total 5 to 6 inches, so expect flooded roadways this evening and sporadic power outages tonight. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Flooding could become a major concern if Fay slows down and stalls off the central Florida east coast. High pressure to the north is expected to block Fay's northward movement and the storm could curl back toward Savannah, Georgia, and regain some additional strength over the Gulf Stream.
If you live in south or central Florida, its just a good day to stay inside and monitor the progress of Fay across the state. Any weather reports, wind measurements and rainfall totals are always appreciated, and these can be posted in the Storm Forum
ED
Expect a blustery day as Fay heads toward east central Florida with winds and squalls increasing in intensity this afternoon and lasting into Wednesday morning. Rainfall, heavy at times, could easily total 5 to 6 inches, so expect flooded roadways this evening and sporadic power outages tonight. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Flooding could become a major concern if Fay slows down and stalls off the central Florida east coast. High pressure to the north is expected to block Fay's northward movement and the storm could curl back toward Savannah, Georgia, and regain some additional strength over the Gulf Stream.
If you live in south or central Florida, its just a good day to stay inside and monitor the progress of Fay across the state. Any weather reports, wind measurements and rainfall totals are always appreciated, and these can be posted in the Storm Forum
ED
Tropical Storm Fay is finally beginning to show some signs of better organization. The LLCC is still somewhat exposed but strong convection to the east is moving closer to the center and the forward speed has slowed - movement now northwest (310 degrees) at 8 knots and decreasing. A convective burst is also noted to the west near the Isle of Pines. Windshear has dropped a little so Fay now has a window for intensification during the diurnal maxima. At 18/00Z the center was still south of the south coast of Cuba near 21N 80.3W with a central pressure of 1001MB.
Model guidance has fluctuated west to east and back again - and more fluctuations are likely. The GFDL continues to show good performance with regard to upper level steering currents. The stronger Fay gets prior to crossing Cuba (and after it does), the greater the northward component of motion as she switches from low level to upper level steering. Southwesterly windshear in the southeast Gulf will be the primary controlling factor on the rate and extent of intensification. The listed intensity of 45 knots throughout the day on Sunday was perhaps a bit generous, however developing convection and a slower forward speed should allow Fay to become better organized before crossing Cuba later tonight.
The exact track with reference to Florida is still a tough call because it really depends on how much Fay re-strengthens after leaving the north coast of western Cuba. The winds at 300MB would favor a north northeast track for a Cat I hurricane with potential landfall in the Sanibel Island to Venice area (19/15Z) and an exit point in the Daytona Beach to St. Augustine area (20/12Z). But if Fay remains just a healthy tropical storm, a more northward track up toward Cedar Key is possible. Although the track solution will remain questionable until later on Monday morning, at the moment I tend to favor the 'hurricane' solution.
Since the intensity of the weather will depend on the likely track - and since the magnitude of the weather will depend on the intensity of the tropical cyclone ... well, you get the idea. With a weak front to the north and Fay to the south, two things are fairly certain: 1) Most of Florida will experience at least tropical storm force winds at some time from late Monday through early Wednesday, and 2) as one of our local media meteorologists recently stated, Florida will soon be in a 'Thunderstorm Sandwich'. All of Florida needs to complete storm preparations on Monday.
ED
Model guidance has fluctuated west to east and back again - and more fluctuations are likely. The GFDL continues to show good performance with regard to upper level steering currents. The stronger Fay gets prior to crossing Cuba (and after it does), the greater the northward component of motion as she switches from low level to upper level steering. Southwesterly windshear in the southeast Gulf will be the primary controlling factor on the rate and extent of intensification. The listed intensity of 45 knots throughout the day on Sunday was perhaps a bit generous, however developing convection and a slower forward speed should allow Fay to become better organized before crossing Cuba later tonight.
The exact track with reference to Florida is still a tough call because it really depends on how much Fay re-strengthens after leaving the north coast of western Cuba. The winds at 300MB would favor a north northeast track for a Cat I hurricane with potential landfall in the Sanibel Island to Venice area (19/15Z) and an exit point in the Daytona Beach to St. Augustine area (20/12Z). But if Fay remains just a healthy tropical storm, a more northward track up toward Cedar Key is possible. Although the track solution will remain questionable until later on Monday morning, at the moment I tend to favor the 'hurricane' solution.
Since the intensity of the weather will depend on the likely track - and since the magnitude of the weather will depend on the intensity of the tropical cyclone ... well, you get the idea. With a weak front to the north and Fay to the south, two things are fairly certain: 1) Most of Florida will experience at least tropical storm force winds at some time from late Monday through early Wednesday, and 2) as one of our local media meteorologists recently stated, Florida will soon be in a 'Thunderstorm Sandwich'. All of Florida needs to complete storm preparations on Monday.
ED
If it seems like July has had an unusual amount of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin - well, its probably because it has! Tropical Storm Cristobal, currently moving slowly northeastward off the North Carolina coast, was the second tropical cyclone to reach Tropical Storm intensity or greater this month (Bertha was the first), and Tropical Storm Dolly, currently in the western Caribbean Sea and moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula is the third. One-third of July still remains and a strong tropical wave moving off the coast of west Africa has at least some potential to become the fourth before this busy month comes to an end.
I was curious as to how often this has happened before in July - and the answer is 'not very often at all'. There have only been six other seasons (since 1851) that have produced three or more Tropical Storms (or Hurricanes) during the month of July. Those seasons with three or more tropical cyclones becoming Tropical Storms/Hurricanes in July (with their season totals for Tropical Storms / Hurricanes / Major Hurricanes) were:
1933 - 3 in July (21/10/5)
1944 - 3 in July (11/7/3)
1966 - 4 in July (11/7/3)
1995 - 4 in July (19/11/5)
1997 - 4 in July (8/3/1)
2005 - 5 in July (28/15/7)
Two observations are noteworthy. 1) The three seasons with the highest ever storm totals are on the list, i.e., 2005, 1933 and 1995. 2) None of these seasons matched the overall pattern and especially the SST trend for 2008 (at least not yet). So the next step was to try and find a season that did match up fairly well with the patterns and trends thus far for 2008. The season that best met the criteria was 1996 (13/9/6). Does it look eerily similar to you? The season of 2000 (15/8/3) was also fairly close, with the early season activity of 2008 running about a month ahead of both of those years. Data from the UNISYS archives:
1996 Season
2000 Season
It will be interesting to see how well either or both of these earlier seasons match up with 2008 when the current season is over.
ED
I was curious as to how often this has happened before in July - and the answer is 'not very often at all'. There have only been six other seasons (since 1851) that have produced three or more Tropical Storms (or Hurricanes) during the month of July. Those seasons with three or more tropical cyclones becoming Tropical Storms/Hurricanes in July (with their season totals for Tropical Storms / Hurricanes / Major Hurricanes) were:
1933 - 3 in July (21/10/5)
1944 - 3 in July (11/7/3)
1966 - 4 in July (11/7/3)
1995 - 4 in July (19/11/5)
1997 - 4 in July (8/3/1)
2005 - 5 in July (28/15/7)
Two observations are noteworthy. 1) The three seasons with the highest ever storm totals are on the list, i.e., 2005, 1933 and 1995. 2) None of these seasons matched the overall pattern and especially the SST trend for 2008 (at least not yet). So the next step was to try and find a season that did match up fairly well with the patterns and trends thus far for 2008. The season that best met the criteria was 1996 (13/9/6). Does it look eerily similar to you? The season of 2000 (15/8/3) was also fairly close, with the early season activity of 2008 running about a month ahead of both of those years. Data from the UNISYS archives:
1996 Season
2000 Season
It will be interesting to see how well either or both of these earlier seasons match up with 2008 when the current season is over.
ED
July holds promise for an increasing level of activity during its last eleven days. Bertha, now barely a minimal hurricane, is moving rapidly off to the northeast into the cooler open waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. Bertha will soon be extratropical but she certainly was an impressive long-running storm for the month of July and gave us something to monitor for almost two and a half weeks.
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristobal is located about 100 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina near 32.8N 78.3W at 19/18Z moving slowly to the northeast at 7mph with a recently reported central pressure of 1006MB, sustained winds of 35 knots, and recent RECON reports of flight level winds as high as 55 knots. Cristobal is under the influence of some windshear, however, the shear zone is expected to relax somewhat in the next 24 hours. While some additional intensification is likely, Cristobal should remain offshore of the Carolina and Virginia coasts as his northeasterly movement continues.
Invest 94L in the central Caribbean Sea maintains a good convective envelope, but struggles to define a center south of Jamaica - perhaps near 15.5N 78.5W at 19/19Z. The system is still fighting northwesterly windshear as it moves just north of due west at 15 knots. This wind shear is expected to relax in about 18 hours - which could prompt better organization and slow intensification on Sunday. If consolidation does take place, the track would become more west northwesterly. Heavy rainfall over Jamaica should continue tonight and Sunday with heavy rain showers spreading to Grand Cayman Island on Sunday, and the system should affect the central and northern Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 28C (Cristobal) and 29-30C (Invest 94L) are adequate to support additional development of both systems if the windshear abates as expected.
Finally, looking far to the east, a vigorous tropical wave with a low pressure center is located over western Africa near 11N 4W at 19/18Z. This system will move off the west African coast on Monday and its worth monitoring this one next week for potential development.
ED
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristobal is located about 100 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina near 32.8N 78.3W at 19/18Z moving slowly to the northeast at 7mph with a recently reported central pressure of 1006MB, sustained winds of 35 knots, and recent RECON reports of flight level winds as high as 55 knots. Cristobal is under the influence of some windshear, however, the shear zone is expected to relax somewhat in the next 24 hours. While some additional intensification is likely, Cristobal should remain offshore of the Carolina and Virginia coasts as his northeasterly movement continues.
Invest 94L in the central Caribbean Sea maintains a good convective envelope, but struggles to define a center south of Jamaica - perhaps near 15.5N 78.5W at 19/19Z. The system is still fighting northwesterly windshear as it moves just north of due west at 15 knots. This wind shear is expected to relax in about 18 hours - which could prompt better organization and slow intensification on Sunday. If consolidation does take place, the track would become more west northwesterly. Heavy rainfall over Jamaica should continue tonight and Sunday with heavy rain showers spreading to Grand Cayman Island on Sunday, and the system should affect the central and northern Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 28C (Cristobal) and 29-30C (Invest 94L) are adequate to support additional development of both systems if the windshear abates as expected.
Finally, looking far to the east, a vigorous tropical wave with a low pressure center is located over western Africa near 11N 4W at 19/18Z. This system will move off the west African coast on Monday and its worth monitoring this one next week for potential development.
ED
The answer is a somewhat qualified yes, however the real questions are 'when' and 'how strong'?
Hurricane Bertha's forward motion is beginning to slow down as she wobbles along to the west northwest to northwest (about 300 degrees) at 12 knots. Steering currents are becoming weaker, especially north of 24N, so a continued slowdown in forward speed is likely. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 27C extend north and northwestward from her current position to about 31N - and this alone would suggest additional intensification - but maybe not.
The latest UKMET and CLP5 models indicate a storm track very much in line with the 07/15Z NHC forecast - taking Bertha a little east of Bermuda late on the 12th, but the GFS handles this storm quite differently with regard to timing and intensity. It is worth noting that he GFS still has not initialized at all well with this system, however, it does maintain a storm track close to the consensus track for the first four days - but as a much weaker system. The GFS then brings a weak Bertha to a stall in the vicinity of 26N 64w with a slow northward drift for a couple of days - and finally brings what is left of the system over Bermuda late on the 15th. So does Bertha pass east of Bermuda on the 12th as a 70 knot Hurricane, or does she drift over Bermuda as a minimal Tropical Storm, at best, on the 15th?
The answer is still an unknown, because the forecasted steering currents and wind shear are tied to the GFS upper level forecasts. Current wind shear projections imply that Bertha will encounter about 20 knots of west southwesterly wind shear for the entire 24 hour period on Tuesday. The low-level shear actually decreases somewhat north of 29N, but the high-level shear actually increases. There are already some hints in the latest satellite imagery that upper level wind shear is beginning to impact the northwest quadrant of the cyclone.
Because the GFS has not yet initialized properly on the strength of Bertha, its slower movement of a much weaker system does leave room for some doubt. However, if the shear zone does exist (and I think that it does), it becomes a question of just how strong is that windshear? There is not much data to glean from the central Atlantic (except for satellite interpretation) to determine a better answer, and until we get one, the folks in Bermuda need to remain vigilant (and I'm sure that they are).
Cheers,
ED
Hurricane Bertha's forward motion is beginning to slow down as she wobbles along to the west northwest to northwest (about 300 degrees) at 12 knots. Steering currents are becoming weaker, especially north of 24N, so a continued slowdown in forward speed is likely. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 27C extend north and northwestward from her current position to about 31N - and this alone would suggest additional intensification - but maybe not.
The latest UKMET and CLP5 models indicate a storm track very much in line with the 07/15Z NHC forecast - taking Bertha a little east of Bermuda late on the 12th, but the GFS handles this storm quite differently with regard to timing and intensity. It is worth noting that he GFS still has not initialized at all well with this system, however, it does maintain a storm track close to the consensus track for the first four days - but as a much weaker system. The GFS then brings a weak Bertha to a stall in the vicinity of 26N 64w with a slow northward drift for a couple of days - and finally brings what is left of the system over Bermuda late on the 15th. So does Bertha pass east of Bermuda on the 12th as a 70 knot Hurricane, or does she drift over Bermuda as a minimal Tropical Storm, at best, on the 15th?
The answer is still an unknown, because the forecasted steering currents and wind shear are tied to the GFS upper level forecasts. Current wind shear projections imply that Bertha will encounter about 20 knots of west southwesterly wind shear for the entire 24 hour period on Tuesday. The low-level shear actually decreases somewhat north of 29N, but the high-level shear actually increases. There are already some hints in the latest satellite imagery that upper level wind shear is beginning to impact the northwest quadrant of the cyclone.
Because the GFS has not yet initialized properly on the strength of Bertha, its slower movement of a much weaker system does leave room for some doubt. However, if the shear zone does exist (and I think that it does), it becomes a question of just how strong is that windshear? There is not much data to glean from the central Atlantic (except for satellite interpretation) to determine a better answer, and until we get one, the folks in Bermuda need to remain vigilant (and I'm sure that they are).
Cheers,
ED
